The Implementation of Business Decision-Making Tools in Incident Rate Prediction

This paper provides an overview of the application of forecasting technique in the prediction of incident rates from a business-oriented perspective. This research shows that traditional business and financial management tools could be used by occupational health and safety professionals in the quest for making realistic advance predictions of incident rates. From earlier research, actual incident rate data were obtained, and new incident rates were predicted, using the double exponential smoothing method. The model validation was achieved by comparing the actual and the predicted incident rates in a one-year period. Forecast accuracy indicated 71.58% with a tracking signal of -4.08. The ability to predict incident rates does not only help in reducing safety intervention costs, but would make it possible for managers and top-level executives to better understand the financial implications and consequences of ineffective safety programs and policies.